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Core Theory: "Lindy Scarcity Amplifier"
1) Lost coins as a time-dependent money sink:
It is estimated that roughly 20% of all bitcoin is lost. One can also assume roughly the same (less or more) for (REDACTED) since it has been less relevant and from same time period. Early era coins have high loss rate due to poor key management. As time passes, natural mortality adds more. Heirs don't know about wallets, no recovery mechanisms exist, etc. The longer the chain exists, the more coins are lost.
2) Net deflationary dynamic:
Lost coins continue at a small but persistent rate tapering down currently from the early days, but expecting to rise as the OG's sadly die off. However, the major supply shock is the halving every 4 years. Some reports even claiming that dormant or lost coins now outpace newly rewarded coins, creating an "invisible burn"
3) Demand pressure amplification
Lindy coins are slowly being accumulated by Institutions, Nation-States, Market Makers, and Retail while digital gold/silver narratives drive demand. Lost coins remove sell side pressure forever. The scarcity premium compounds over time: the older/more lindy the coin the stronger the effect becomes, creating a self-reinforcing loop where survival breeds more perceived value, which creates more holding, which creates more forgotten or lost coins in the future
4) Comparison to newer coins
New coins have almost no lost supply accumulation yet because they have a short history, no dead owners, and better key practices today. They face higher extinction risk as well. They have no clearly defined support and resistance levels yet. A large % of the supply or more is locked up or held by insiders. Leading to inaccurate valuations and losses for retail if they buy on launch.

Jan 29, 2026
30 years from now
think about how much crypto will be lost
due to people dying and not setting up
a way for family to access your seed phrase
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