私が見た中で最も単純な説明は、なぜ出生率の低下が環境に良くないのかというもの@JesusFerna7026: 環境投資は贅沢品であり、高齢化社会が避けられない経済危機に直面する際に最初に失われるものの一つとなるでしょう。 以下に詳しくお読みください。
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde2026年2月25日
Every time I post about falling fertility, someone replies: “Great for the planet.” I understand the intuition, but it gets the economics almost exactly backwards. To be clear: I am not arguing for explosive population growth. A gentle decline or stabilization would be my first choice. The problem is that we are not heading toward a gentle decline. We are heading toward a collapse. And a collapse changes everything. Environmental protection behaves like a luxury good. As countries become richer, citizens demand cleaner air, cleaner water, and stronger climate policy. Prosperity creates both the willingness and the fiscal capacity to pay for these goods. This is not a theoretical curiosity. The modern environmental movement was born in California in the 1960s, when the state was among the richest in the richest country on earth. That was no coincidence. You need to be prosperous before you start worrying about the spotted owl. A sustained fertility collapse works in the opposite direction. As populations age, pension and healthcare costs rise while the tax base shrinks. Governments under that kind of fiscal pressure protect mandatory spending first because that is what voters scream about (I am from Europe, and I can tell you this is the case with 100% certainty). Environmental investment, which is largely discretionary, is the easiest to postpone. And it will be postponed, particularly in middle- and low-income countries. Environmental policy is not a costless virtue. It requires administrative capacity, long planning horizons, and resources. Lots of resources. Decarbonization alone demands trillions in public and private investment over the coming decades. Where will that money come from if the working-age population is shrinking and the dependency ratio is exploding? If demographic collapse erodes prosperity and fiscal space, and the evidence strongly suggests it will, it will not increase environmental investment. It will make it harder to sustain. So, if you care about the environment, I am sorry, but what is happening with fertility right now is terrible news.
@JesusFerna7026 都市が人口減少のスパイラルに陥ったときに何が起こるか見てみよう。人口が少なく、資金も不足して再生を支えるには至らないため、美しい公園にはなりません。 むしろ、維持できなくなると物は荒廃してしまうのです。
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