President Trump’s sensational remarks about engaging in negotiations with Iran convey a key message: Washington has already abandoned its traditional objective of pursuing regime change in Iran, and Trump has effectively acknowledged the legitimacy of Iran’s current government. This marks a fundamentally new stance by Washington since the outbreak of the war. In my view, it could serve as a political foundation for the US and Iran to reach an agreement through sustained efforts. That said, the situation may still evolve. Before a final agreement is reached, it cannot be ruled out that negotiations and confrontations will alternate.

President Donald Trump needs to act decisively to cool down the situation. On Sunday, Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all vessels except those of its “enemies.” President Trump should treat this as a positive response to his ultimatum and abandon the bombing campaign against Iran. President Trump should not continue to harbor the illusion that a larger-scale air campaign can quickly force Iran into submission. Bombing Iran’s power plants would indeed inflict greater damage of the country, but it would not help reopen the Strait of Hormuz quickly. Moreover, Iran’s retaliation against Gulf states would lead to even greater regional losses, and oil prices would surge sharply. As long as Iran does not yield, the Strait of Hormuz cannot achieve sustained and secure navigation under the protection of the US and its allies. Instability in the Strait will lead to prolonged volatility in oil prices, while any ground military adventure would increase U.S. casualties—bringing President Trump no political benefit whatsoever. The US simply cannot force Iran into unconditional surrender without launching a large-scale ground invasion. Such an objective is far too burdensome; it would drag President Trump’s entire term into the conflict and is fundamentally not the gamble he originally intended. This is undoubtedly a misguided war, but President Trump could still portray it as a “victory” in his own terms. He needs to withdraw as early as possible and cut his political losses.

Personally, I think Iran has zero chance of accepting this ultimatum. Whether Trump orders strikes on Iranian power stations after the deadline will determine whether tensions ease or spiral sharply.