Performance of our ideas vs. the S&P 500 since we started publishing in 2021 - before today's 60% meltdown in $GSY.TO, obviously

We are short $GPGI, an industrial conglomerate with easy to borrow stock and $7bn of market cap. Below is a summary of some of the key opinions in this idea; for the full short thesis including a downloadable PDF, please see the Jehoshaphat Research website. 1) We believe GPGI is playing a variety of accounting games to inflate the performance of the much larger company it just acquired. All major aspects of the financials appear to be affected – FCF, revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, etc. For example, in our opinion the acquired company’s “free cash flow" is 90% overstated, while GPGI is conflating different versions of FCF in a way that makes projections appear attainable. 2) This acquired company (Husky Technologies), at >70% of pro forma company EBITDA, is now the main story for GPGI. 3) We believe the prior owners who sold Husky to GPGI may have been playing even more aggressive accounting games, which leads us to suspect that GPGI has been – knowingly or unknowingly - inflating an already-inflated balloon. 4) We believe GPGI is “flawed by design,” that it's a wealth transfer platform built to enrich its insiders at the expense of outside shareholders. But GPGI leadership is clever; at first glance, it looks like insiders and outside investors are unusually well-aligned. The unusual corporate structure feels smart, and it feels like it’s for smart people; that might be why few seem to be willing to point out how egregious certain aspects of it are, lest they appear unsophisticated? 5) We believe these misaligned incentives have created the need for Management to make outlandish promises about GPGI’s financial performance and the performance of the recently acquired company, Husky Technologies. Incentives remain undefeated for predicting human behavior. 6) A technical overhang creates the conditions for a short to potentially work faster here, while the stock has no valuation support due to a sizeable “conglomerate premium” apparently baked in. (We wonder how the PE firm that sold Husky to GPGI managed to secure a remarkably short lockup on its GPGI shares.) We always leave some of the more interesting things for readers of the full report, so we encourage you to visit our website and download the PDF of our short thesis, paying attention as well to our very important disclaimer. Comments and corrections welcome at our website or our email address.

$AAON Haven't done an in-depth statistical study on this, but it's our experience that longtime executives who suddenly dump a huge percentage of their stock tend to leave their positions relatively soon after that. News from AAON today feels confirmatory of that bias. First image from our short thesis on AAON last month, second image from AAON PR (via Bloomberg) today: