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Well, this is another piece of cold knowledge... It's so contrary to common sense...
BTC has dropped from $126,000 last October to around $67,000 now. That's a 47% drop.
It sounds terrible, but this is actually the weakest bear market in BTC's history.
In previous bear markets, the average drop was 80%, and the least it ever dropped was 72%. By that standard, we might have only dropped halfway now.
But the most outrageous part isn't the drop percentage. It's that nothing has exploded in this bear market.
No FTX, no Luna, no Three Arrows Capital, no exchanges going bankrupt, no stablecoins de-pegging. None of the disaster scenarios you can think of have happened.
The well-established Wall Street research firm Bernstein calls this "a self-manufactured crisis of confidence." What it means is: no one messed anything up; the market scared itself into a bear market.
Believers in the four-year cycle think it should drop, so it drops. The media thinks it should write an obituary, so it writes one.
Then I found an even more outrageous piece of data —
Coinbase and Glassnode conducted a survey of institutional investors, and 26% of institutions said we are in a bear market. But in the same survey, 62% of institutions have increased their positions or at least maintained their long positions in the past few months. 70% of institutions believe BTC is undervalued.
On one hand, they shout bear market, and on the other hand, they are increasing their positions.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 11, similar to when FTX exploded. But back then, something really blew up; this time, nothing has exploded.
BTC has now fallen for five consecutive months since last October, marking the longest monthly decline since 2018. ETF funds have been continuously flowing out, but the outflow rate is sharply slowing — from $3.48 billion in November to just over $200 million in February, a 94% drop.
Honestly, I don't know what to make of this.
-- A 47% drop but the weakest in history,
-- Nothing has exploded but the fear index is the same as FTX,...
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